So I just finished the book. I loved the parallels and foreshadowing and what have you. I knew next to nothing about Lucy Gray before reading and still feel like I know very little.
So her name comes from the ballad of the same name and the what happens to the girl up to debate on whether she’s gone or just simply dead.
I heard the theories that Lucy may be related to Coin or (what I think is a little dumb) is Coin herself. I think for the most part that should be ruled out, as Suzanne Collins helped to make this movie too and if Lucy was Coin I think they would have chosen a white girl since Coin is white (I’ve only watched the movies so I’m not sure if she’s described differently).
I also saw a theory that Lucy Gray drowned but to me that honestly makes no sense because Snow went into the lake to get rid of the evidence from his crime. If she was in the water he would have seen her, plus I think she would have been to far to make it to the lake since it seems to be implied that Snow was able to hit her.
Lucy Gray was the victor of the 10th hunger games and even without Snow’s help I think she could have made it to at least the final 5. She’s smart. So I don’t think she died, at least not until some time after Snow left the woods.
Though this bit of text does make me think she may have died to her injury by Snow:
“If he’d felt better, he’d have laughed at the irony of how quickly their relationship had deteriorated into their own private Hunger Games.”
I agree with the people saying it’s meant to be intentionally vague. The most logical options to me are that she either did get hit by Coriolanus’ bullet and later died, or she got away and either went to 13 or somewhere else outside the districts.
The point is that Snow doesn’t know. Because of that I think she takes on a sort of mythical quality to him (like the girl in the song) and represents the very specific wildness and spirit of rebellion that he later sees in Katniss.