So I just finished the book. I loved the parallels and foreshadowing and what have you. I knew next to nothing about Lucy Gray before reading and still feel like I know very little.
So her name comes from the ballad of the same name and the what happens to the girl up to debate on whether she’s gone or just simply dead.
I heard the theories that Lucy may be related to Coin or (what I think is a little dumb) is Coin herself. I think for the most part that should be ruled out, as Suzanne Collins helped to make this movie too and if Lucy was Coin I think they would have chosen a white girl since Coin is white (I’ve only watched the movies so I’m not sure if she’s described differently).
I also saw a theory that Lucy Gray drowned but to me that honestly makes no sense because Snow went into the lake to get rid of the evidence from his crime. If she was in the water he would have seen her, plus I think she would have been to far to make it to the lake since it seems to be implied that Snow was able to hit her.
Lucy Gray was the victor of the 10th hunger games and even without Snow’s help I think she could have made it to at least the final 5. She’s smart. So I don’t think she died, at least not until some time after Snow left the woods.
Though this bit of text does make me think she may have died to her injury by Snow:
“If he’d felt better, he’d have laughed at the irony of how quickly their relationship had deteriorated into their own private Hunger Games.”
She said herself she couldn’t run off on her own because she’d have to return to the Covey. I think she was dead before Snow even left the cabin. Maybe slipped and broke her neck or something. She was probably singing while she was still alive and the birds picked up the song.
The Covey probably found and dealt with her remains and they didn’t raise any murder alarm or missing person fuss because she wasn’t shot or anything. It looked like an accident because it was one.
Plus, I think if Coriolanus had even the barest suspicion she was still out there, he’d put every resource toward taking her out. He doesn’t like loose ends. Unless she was able to disappear extremely thoroughly and probably never sing again, he’d have gotten a whiff of her and taken her out. Even if she did run off and survive, if even a rumor of her surfaced, he’d find her.
Even if she did survive, there’s no way she could return to D12. The mayor thinks she had something to do with his daughter’s death, she was known to people there, etc. I don’t think she could have managed to return under a pseudonym successfully.
I also don’t think she’s as resourceful and capable as everyone else does. She’s a performer, more like Peeta than Katniss. She’s charming and clever, but she isn’t a survivalist or a loner and there’s so much that can go wrong in the wilderness. Even a well-prepared, experienced hiker takes a risk going out on long trails. She’s out there in a dress, mucking about in the rain without supplies. I don’t think she’s awful or stupid or anything, but I don’t think she’d be able to hack it on her own.
She’s not even much of a rebel, though she is obviously a free spirit. Sejanus, for me, was the stronger example of the rebel spirit, the need to do the right thing, to take risks for the greater good, etc.
I think she really represents what was left of Snow’s potential to walk the better path. He needed to ‘kill’ her to put away the last vestiges of his ability to connect on a human level, with love. When Katniss chose Peeta, she chose love and life. When Snow turned on Lucy, he turned his back on the same.