I know this is probably a common topic. For me, I’m not sure if it’s a “trope” or just totally misinformed writing, but it’s how many authors approach alcoholism. Some examples are Girl on the Train and The House Across the Lake, among HUNDREDS. If anyone else here has struggled with alcoholism, you know it’s not just "i woke up after downing an entire bottle of whiskey but was able to shower, down a cup of coffee, and solve a murder. "
What I thought @wjbc meant was that they wanted the negative outcome to happen, but it turns out what they meant was they wanted a knowledge of a potential or guaranteed negative outcome not to sway the protagonist.
I agree with you, it’s might or might not, and neither is more realistic than the other. Sometimes pessimists think they are realists, and the only likely outcome is the worst, but I don’t think that plays out like that in real life. A lot of reckless people get away with it without worrying for a long time. And some people break that leg without even needing to do something reckless!